September has been a rollercoaster so far, with swings in both MLB and NFL action keeping us on our toes. Tonight we lock in on the diamond, where the data points us to several high-confidence pitcher props along with one hitter edge. These spots line up well with recent form and matchup trends, giving us a strong card to close the night. And with Week 2 of the NFL kicking off tomorrow, this is the perfect chance to build momentum heading into a big weekend.

Table of Contents

• 📊 WagerLens Performance Review

• 💎 Today’s Featured Props

• Ready to Raise Your Betting Game?

• Today's Featured Props Recap

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

MLB: 211-193 (92%; +12.6 Units)

September ‘25: 13-16 (45%; -2.76 Units)

All-Time: 346-301 (53%; +50.7 Units)

💎 Today’s Featured Props

🎯 Michael McGreevy OVER 5.5 Hits Allowed

Best Price: -110 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 9 Hits

• Last 3-Game Average: 6.67 H/G

• Last 5-Game Average: 6.4 H/G

• Season Average: 6.154 H/G

• Confidence Score: 93

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 2 out of last 3 over

• 3 out of last 5 over

• 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Michael McGreevy has been giving up plenty of contact, and this prop lines up well with his recent trends. He allowed 9 hits in his last outing and has averaged over 6 hits per game across both his last 3 and last 5 starts. On the season, he sits at 6.15 hits per game, which is already above this 5.5 line. The consistency shows in the performance trends too, as he has gone over this number in 8 of his last 10 starts. The matchup makes things even more appealing, with the Mariners averaging nearly 12 hits per game across their last 3.

Risk Factors

• McGreevy has avoided this line in 2 of his last 4 starts

🎯 Nick Pivetta UNDER 4.5 Hits Allowed

Best Price: -130 on BetMGM

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 7 Hits

• Last 3-Game Average: 4.33 H/G

• Last 5-Game Average: 4 H/G

• Season Average: 4.071 H/G

• Confidence Score: 93

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 2 out of last 3 under

• 4 out of last 5 under

• 8 out of last 10 under

Key Analysis

Nick Pivetta draws a solid matchup for his hits allowed prop, and the numbers point toward value on the under. While he gave up 7 hits in his last start, his larger sample tells a different story, averaging just over 4 hits per game across the season and staying under this 4.5 line in 8 of his last 10 outings. The Reds’ offense adds another layer of support, as they have managed 3 or fewer hits against starters in 3 of their last 4 games, showing a recent trend of struggling to make consistent contact early. With Pivetta’s strong track record of keeping traffic limited and the Reds’ lack of offensive punch against starters, the under at -130 looks like the sharper side, reinforced by a confidence score of 93.

Risk Factors

• Reds’ ability to ramp up their offense

Ready to Raise Your Betting Game?

Step up your game at WagerLens.com, where sharp bettors find their edge.

🔥 Unlock killer tools, exclusive data, expert insights, and a winning community.

Join WagerLens now and bet like a pro.

Don’t miss a play. Follow WagerLens on X for daily drops!

🎯 William Contreras OVER 0.5 Singles

Best Price: +108 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 2 Singles

• Last 3-Game Average: 1 1B/G

• Last 5-Game Average: 1.2 1B/G

• Season Average: 0.693 1B/G

• Confidence Score: 92

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 2 out of last 3 over

• 4 out of last 5 over

• 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

William Contreras looks well-positioned to clear this singles line, especially with plus money attached. He comes in hot, recording at least one single in 8 of his last 10 games, and he has been steady with 1 per game over his last 3 and 1.2 per game over his last 5. On the season, he averages just under 0.7 singles per game, but his recent form shows he’s trending higher. The matchup also works in his favor, as he owns a strong .356 OBP against right-handed pitching and faces Merrill Kelly, who has given up 24 hits over his last 5 starts. With his consistency at the plate and Kelly’s tendency to allow contact, Contreras has a strong chance to deliver a base knock, making this over a worthwhile play at +108 with a confidence score of 92.

Risk Factors

• Walks and XBH will not cash

🎯 Carson Seymour UNDER 3.5 Strikeouts Thrown

Best Price: +105 on BetMGM

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 2 SO

• Last 3-Game Average: 1.33 SO/G

• Last 5-Game Average: 1.6 SO/G

• Season Average: 1.667 SO/G

• Confidence Score: 91

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 under

• 5 out of last 5 under

• 9 out of last 10 under

Key Analysis

Carson Seymour’s strikeout prop sits a bit high given his track record and role, making the under appealing at plus money. He has stayed under 3.5 strikeouts in 9 of his last 10 appearances, including every one of his last 5, while averaging fewer than 2 Ks per outing on the season. Seymour has only made 2 career starts and is typically used in relief, with his deepest outing capped at around 75 pitches. That limited workload keeps his strikeout ceiling low, and with such a consistent history of falling short of this number, the under looks like the right side here at +105, backed by a 91 confidence score.

Risk Factors

• Diamondbacks lineup can chase pitches and help pitchers get their K numbers up

Today's Featured Props Recap

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

1. 🔥 William Contreras OVER 0.5 Singles (+108 DraftKings)

   • Most consistent trend: 8/10 in L10

   • Averaging 1.2 1B/G over his last 5

   • The matchup works in his favor, as he owns a strong .356 OBP against right-handed pitching and faces Merrill Kelly, who has given up 24 hits over his last 5 starts

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Michael McGreevy OVER 5.5 Hits Allowed (-110 DraftKings)

• Hot streak: 8/10 in L10

• Averaging 6.4 Hits Allowed per game in L5

• The matchup makes things even more appealing, with the Mariners averaging nearly 12 hits per game across their last 3

Trending Unders

1. 📉 Nick Pivetta UNDER 4.5 Hits Allowed (-130 BetMGM)

• 8/L10 games staying UNDER

• Allowing just 4 H/G over his last 5 starts

• The Reds’ offense adds another layer of support, as they have managed 3 or fewer hits against starters in 3 of their last 4 games, showing a recent trend of struggling to make consistent contact early

2. ⬇️ Carson Seymour UNDER 3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+1-5 BetMGM)

• 9/L10 games staying UNDER

• Averaging just 1.33 SO/G over his last 3 games (2 starts and a relief)

• Seymour has only made 2 career starts and is typically used in relief, with his deepest outing capped at around 75 pitches

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team