We’re coming off a profitable 3-2 day and looking to keep that momentum rolling into a solid 9-game MLB slate. While the board isn’t packed, we’ve locked in a few high-confidence spots—especially on the pitching side—that offer strong value based on recent trends and matchups. With a balanced slate and sharp reads in play, we’re set up to see more green today. Let’s stay disciplined and cash in.

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Table of Contents

• 📊 WagerLens Performance Review

• 💎 Today’s Featured Props

• MLB Home Run Hitters Edge

• Today's Featured Props Recap

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (06/22): 3-2 (60%; +0.41 Units)

MLB: 112-104 (52%; +10 Units)

June ‘25: 25-21 (54%; +0.89 Units)

All-Time: 237-206 (53%; +44.2 Untits)

💎 Today’s Featured Props

🎯 Jack Kochanowicz OVER 1.5 Walks

Best Price: +105 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 3 BB

• Last 3-Game Average: 1.33 BB/G

• Last 5-Game Average: 1.8 BB/G

• Season Average: 2.4 BB/G

• Confidence Score: 92

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 1 out of last 3 over

• 3 out of last 5 over

• 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Jack Kochanowicz's walks prop is set at 1.5, and there's strong value on the over at plus money. Despite going under in 2 of his last 3 starts, he's cleared this number in 8 of his last 10 with a season average of 2.4 BB per game. His recent 5-game average of 1.8 also leans toward the over. The Red Sox are a patient lineup, averaging 3.38 walks per game on the season and 2.33 per game over their last 3. With hitters like Roman Anthony being extremely patient at the plate, Kochanowicz will be tested early and often. Given his track record and the Cubs’ plate discipline, this over looks like a sharp play at plus odds.

Risk Factors

• Walk rate trending down, may have found his groove

🎯 Spencer Schwellenbach OVER 15.5 Outs

Best Price: -122 on BetRivers

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 21 Outs

• Last 3-Game Average: 22 Outs/G

• Last 5-Game Average: 20.6 Outs/G

• Season Average: 19.33 Outs/G

• Confidence Score: 91

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 over

• 5 out of last 5 over

• 9 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Spencer Schwellenbach has been a model of consistency lately, making the over on 15.5 outs a strong play. He’s cleared this line in 9 of his last 10 starts, including each of his last 5, with a 3-game average of 22 outs and a season mark of 19.33. He’s shown the ability to work deep into games, but today’s challenge comes in the form of a Mets lineup that doesn’t score much early—averaging just 1.67 runs through the first 5 innings over their last 3 games and 2.41 on the season. However, the Mets also lead MLB in pitches seen per plate appearance, which could drive up Schwellenbach’s pitch count and potentially shorten his outing. Still, with his recent form and the Mets' lack of early damage, he’s in a strong spot to get through at least five and a third.

Risk Factors

• Mets hitters see the most pitches per PA in the MLB

🎯 Spencer Horwitz OVER 0.5 Hits

Best Price: -127 on BetRivers

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 3 Hits

• Last 3-Game Average: 1.33 H/G

• Last 5-Game Average: 1.2 H/G

• Season Average: .867 H/G

• Confidence Score: 91

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 2 out of last 3 over

• 4 out of last 5 over

• 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Spencer Horwitz is hitting his stride, making the over on 0.5 hits a solid value play. He’s cleared this line in 8 of his last 10 games, including 4 of his last 5, and is averaging 1.2 hits over his last 5 games. His season average of 0.867 hits per game backs up that consistency, and he just racked up 3 hits in his last outing. Horwitz also holds a strong .340 OBP vs right-handed pitching, and he faces Chad Patrick, who has allowed 6 or more hits in back-to-back starts. With strong recent form and a favorable matchup, Horwitz is well-positioned to notch at least one base knock today.

Risk Factors

• Patrick has both a High K rate and BB rate

🎯 Matthew Liberatore OVER 3.5 Strikeouts Thrown

Best Price: -140 on FanDuel

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 4 Ks

• Last 3-Game Average: 3.33 K/G

• Last 5-Game Average: 3.8 K/G

• Season Average: 4.714 K/G

• Confidence Score: XX

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 2 out of last 3 over

• 4 out of last 5 over

• 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Matthew Liberatore's strikeout line is set at 3.5, and there's solid reason to lean toward the over. He’s hit this mark in 4 of his last 5 starts and 8 of his last 10, with a season average of 4.714 Ks per game. His recent 5-game average of 3.8 is just above the line, and while his 3-game average dips slightly to 3.33, he’s still coming off a 4-strikeout performance. The Cubs strike out 7.94 times per game on the season and just racked up 9 Ks in their last outing. With recent consistency and a strikeout-prone opponent, Liberatore is in a strong spot to clear this number.

Risk Factors

• Todays line is right around his recent average

MLB Home Run Hitters Edge

MLB hitters with higher probability to hit a home run based on season stats, matchups with starting pitchers and other key stats (odds from DraftKings)

• Paul Goldschmidt +340

• Logan O’Hoppe +370

• Gary Sanchez +400

Today's Featured Props Recap

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

1. 🔥 Jack Kochanowicz OVER 1.5 Walks (+105 DraftKings)

   • Most consistent trend: 8/10 in L10

   • Averaging 2.4 BB/G this season

   • The Red Sox are a patient lineup, averaging 3.38 walks per game on the season and 2.33 per game over their last 3

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Spencer Schwellenbach OVER 15.5 Outs (-122 BetRivers)

• Hot streak: 5/5 in L5

• Averaging 20.6 Outs/G in L5

• Mets lineup doesn’t score much early—averaging just 1.67 runs through the first 5 innings over their last 3 games and 2.41 on the season

2. ⚡ Spencer Horwitz OVER 0.5 Hits (-127 BetRivers)

• 8/L10 games going OVER

• Averaging 1.2 H/G over last 5

• Horwitz holds a strong .340 OBP vs right-handed pitching, and he faces Chad Patrick, who has allowed 6 or more hits in back-to-back starts

3. 💥 Matthew Liberatore OVER 3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-140 FanDuel)

• 8/L10 games going OVER

• Averaging 4.714 K/G this season

• The Cubs strike out 7.94 times per game on the season and just racked up 9 Ks in their last outing

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team