Trending MLB Overs: Starting May Hot!

Sharp Analysis. Simple Execution. Daily Value.

Author

Sage Davis
May 02, 2025

We hope you enjoyed yesterday’s educational breakdown with a side of NFL Draft buzz. Everyone needs the occasional breather from daily wagering to reset and refocus. Now, with a new month ahead, it’s time to turn the page. We wrapped up April with a 53% win rate and a strong +23.6 units—boosted by a few sharp parlays and some well-placed long shots. Let’s stay dialed in and keep the momentum rolling into May.

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Table of Contents

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

NBA: 115-85 (57.5%; 42.4 Units)

MLB: 38-39 (49%; 11.6 Units)

April ‘25: 53-47 (53%; 23.6 Units)

All-Time: 163-139 (54%; 47.8 Units)

🎯 Aaron Judge OVER 1.5 Total Bases

Best Price: -125 on ESPN Bet

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 6 TB

  • Last 3-Game Average: 4.33 TB/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 3.8 TB/G

  • Season Average: 2.871 TB/G

  • Confidence Score: 93

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 5 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Aaron Judge’s OVER 1.5 Total Bases prop at -125 on ESPN Bet looks like a strong value play given his elite form and favorable matchup. Judge is scorching hot to start the season, batting .427 with a 1.282 OPS, 10 HR, and 89 total bases through just 31 games. He’s cleared this prop in 8 of his last 10 games, including each of his last 5, averaging 4.33 total bases over his last 3 games—well above the 1.5 line. Even his season average of 2.871 TB/G supports the over. He’s also hit .333 in limited at-bats (6) against starter Ryan Pepiot, who has given up 35 hits in 34 IP, suggesting potential for contact and power.

Risk Factors

  • Pepiot 1 K/Inning average

🎯 Alec Bohm OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: -110 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 2 H/R/RBIs

  • Last 3-Game Average: 1.667 H/R/RBIs per Game

  • Last 5-Game Average: 1.6 H/R/RBIs per Game

  • Season Average: 1.586 H/R/RBIs per Game

  • Confidence Score: 90

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 3 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Alec Bohm’s OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs at -110 on DraftKings offers solid value based on both his consistency and matchup upside. Bohm has gone over this line in 8 of his last 10 games, and while his recent averages (1.667 over the last 3, 1.6 over the last 5) hover just above the line, he’s been a steady contributor all season with a 1.586 season average in this combo stat. He’s also 1-for-2 lifetime against Merrill Kelly, who has allowed 16 runs on 24 hits and 12 walks in 32.2 innings and struggled on the road with a 6.46 ERA.

Risk Factors

  • Prop may depend on others in lineup to perform well

🎯 Salvador Perez OVER 1.5 Total Bases

Best Price: +105 on FanDuel

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 2 TB

  • Last 3-Game Average: 2 TB/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 1.8 TB/G

  • Season Average: 1.452 TB/G

  • Confidence Score: 73

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

Key Analysis

Salvador Perez’s OVER 1.5 Total Bases at +105 on FanDuel presents a plus-money opportunity with decent upside based on recent trends and matchup data. Perez has cleared this number in 3 straight games and 4 of his last 5, averaging 2.0 TB/G over his last 3. While his season average sits at 1.452 TB/G, slightly below the line, the recent surge signals positive momentum. He also owns a .273 average (3-for-11) against Dean Kremer, who’s been hittable this year, surrendering 40 hits in just 30.2 innings.

Risk Factors

  • Would need to Singles or an XBH

🎯 Mitchell Parker OVER 1.5 Walks Allowed

Best Price: -145 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 5 Walks allowed

  • Last 3-Game Average: 2.67 walks allowed per game

  • Last 5-Game Average: 2.8 walks allowed per game

  • Season Average: 2.667 walks allowed per game

  • Confidence Score: 79

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

Key Analysis

Mitchell Parker’s OVER 1.5 Walks Allowed at -145 on DraftKings is a data-backed play with solid recent trends and a favorable matchup. Parker has issued 16 walks over 37.1 innings this season, averaging 2.67 per game, and has gone over this line in 4 of his last 5 starts, including a 5-walk outing most recently. His last 3- and 5-game averages (2.67 and 2.8 walks allowed) show consistent control issues. The Reds present added pressure, averaging 3.56 walks per game, giving Parker little room for error.

Risk Factors

  • Hitters need to be selective at the plate

MLB Home Run Hitters Edge

MLB hitters with higher probability to hit a home run based on season stats, matchups with starting pitchers and other key stats (odds from DraftKings)

  • Cedric Mullins +500

  • Teoscar Hernandez +400

  • Seiya Suzuki +450

  • Franciso Lindor +450

  • Jorge Soler +475

  • Bobby Witt Jr. +370

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

  1. 🔥 Salvador Perez OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+105 FanDuel)

    • Most consistent trend: 4/5 in L5

    • Averaging 2.0 TB/G over his last 3

    • Perez owns a .273 average (3-for-11) against Dean Kremer, who’s been hittable this year, surrendering 40 hits in just 30.2 innings

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Aaron Judge OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-125 ESPN Bet)

  • Hot streak: 5/5 in L5

  • Averaging 3.8 TB/G in L5

  • Judge has hit .333 in limited at-bats (6) against starter Ryan Pepiot, who has given up 35 hits in 34 IP

2. ⚡ Alec Bohm OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-110 DraftKings)

  • 8/L10 games going OVER

  • Averaging 1.6 H/R/RBIs per game over last 5 games

  • 1-for-2 lifetime against Merrill Kelly, who has allowed 16 runs on 24 hits and 12 walks in 32.2 innings and struggled on the road with a 6.46 ERA

3. 💥 Mitchell Parker OVER 1.5 Walks Allowed (-145 DraftKings)

  • 4/L5 games going OVER

  • 2.8 walks allowed per game over last 5 games

  • Reds present added pressure, averaging 3.56 walks per game

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team