Trending MLB Props Bound to Cash

High-confidence angles on Mahle, Bader, and Tovar

AuthorAuthor

Sage Davis & Brian McAbee
September 19, 2025

We continue to sit even in terms of profit. Even is always better then negative. We have a smaller card for today’s MLB slate but the props come with high confidence. Playoffs are right around the corner for the MLB and the NFL is just heating up. Lets make some money.

Table of Contents

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (09/18): 2-2 (50%; -0.24 Units)

MLB: 220-201 (52%; +12.94 Units)

September ‘25: 29-35 (45%; -0.3 Units)

All-Time: 363-320 (53%; +53.16 Units)

🎯 Tyler Mahle OVER 3.5 Hits Allowed

Best Price: -109 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 10 Hits Allowed

  • Last 3-Game Average: 6.33 H/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 5.8 H/G

  • Season Average: 4.286 H/G

  • Confidence Score: 98

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 5 out of last 5 over

  • 9 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Tyler Mahle’s OVER 3.5 hits allowed looks like one of the strongest pitching props on the slate. He’s been consistently hittable, giving up 10 hits in his last outing and averaging 6.33 hits over his last 3 games and 5.8 over his last 5. Even on the season, he sits at 4.29 hits allowed per start, showing this isn’t just a recent blip but a steady trend. The consistency stands out: he’s cleared this line in 9 of his last 10 games and all of his last 5, which is reflected in the 98 confidence score. Facing a Rangers lineup averaging 8.67 hits per game in their last 3, the matchup only strengthens the case. At -109 on DraftKings, this line offers strong value for an over that has hit at one of the highest rates on the board.

Risk Factors

  • Rangers offense can be hit or miss

🎯 Harrison Bader OVER 0.5 Singles

Best Price: -133 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 1 Single

  • Last 3-Game Average: 0.67 1B/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 1.2 1B/G

  • Season Average: 0.562 1B/G

  • Confidence Score: 95

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

  • 9 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Harrison Bader’s OVER 0.5 singles sets up as a high-confidence play given both his recent form and the matchup. He has recorded at least one single in 9 of his last 10 games, including 4 of his last 5, showing impressive consistency. His season average of 0.56 singles per game undersells his current production, as he’s trending closer to 1.2 singles over his last 5 games. Bader also owns a strong .382 OBP against right-handed pitching, which aligns well against Ryne Nelson, who has been hittable, allowing 4.2 hits per start over his last 5 outings. With a 95 confidence score and the recent stretch of success, this looks like a solid value at -133 on DraftKings, especially with Bader’s ability to reach base consistently against righties.

Risk Factors

  • XBH will not cash

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🎯 Ezequiel Tovar UNDER 1.5 Total Bases

Best Price: -116 on Caesars

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 1 TB

  • Last 3-Game Average: 0.67 TB/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 1 TB/G

  • Season Average: 1.535 TB/G

  • Confidence Score: 89

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 under

  • 4 out of last 5 under

  • 9 out of last 10 under

Key Analysis

Ezequiel Tovar’s UNDER 1.5 total bases stands out as a strong angle given his recent production. He’s stayed under this mark in 9 of his last 10 games, including each of his last 3, and is averaging just 1.0 TB over his last 5. While his season average of 1.54 TB/G suggests he can occasionally flash extra-base power, his recent form tells a different story. The matchup doesn’t do him many favors either: Tovar owns only a .397 slugging percentage vs left-handed pitching, limiting his upside against Mitch Farris, who has allowed a manageable 3.67 hits per game across 3 starts. With an 89 confidence score, the under looks well-supported, especially at -116 on Caesars where the odds present good value on his current trends.

Risk Factors

  • Tovar finds a gap and stretches out a double

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

  1. 🔥 Tyler Mahle OVER 3.5 Hits Allowed (-109 DraftKings)

    • Most consistent trend: 9/10 in L10

    • Averaging 6.33 hits allowed per game in L3

    • Facing a Rangers lineup averaging 8.67 hits per game in their last 3

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Harrison Bader OVER 0.5 Singles (-133 DraftKings)

  • Hot streak: 9/10 in L10

  • Averaging 1.2 singles per game in L5

  • Bader owns a strong .382 OBP against right-handed pitching, which aligns well against Ryne Nelson, who has been hittable, allowing 4.2 hits per start over his last 5 outings

Trending Unders

1. 📉 Ezequiel Tovar UNDER 1.5 Total Bases (-116 Caesars)

  • 9/L10 games staying UNDER

  • Averaging just 0.5 TB/G over his last 10

  • ovar owns only a .397 slugging percentage vs left-handed pitching, limiting his upside against Mitch Farris, who has allowed a manageable 3.67 hits per game across 3 starts

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team