Two Underdogs with Massive Momentum

Breaking down why 2 of today's underdogs have a path to victory

AuthorAuthor

Sage Davis & Brian McAbee
September 17, 2025

We went 2-2 yesterday, essentially breaking even once again. The good news—we’re still sitting just above profit on the month. Today’s card gives us a chance to take a real swing and build momentum. And with a lopsided TNF matchup on deck tomorrow, we’re already locked in and ready to fire on some big plays.

Table of Contents

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (09/16): 2-2 (50%; -0.11 Units)

MLB: 219-198 (53%; +14.6 Units)

September ‘25: 26-30 (46%; +1.62 Units)

All-Time: 359-315 (53%; +55.1 Units)

🎯 Cleveland Guardians Moneyline

Best Price: +132 on BetRivers

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: Won

  • Last 3-Game Average: 3-0

  • Last 5-Game Average: 5-0

  • Season Average: 79-71

  • Confidence Score: 86

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 won

  • 5 out of last 5 won

  • 9 out of last 10 won

Key Analysis

The Cleveland Guardians Moneyline at +132 on BetRivers shapes up as an appealing underdog play given their momentum and pitching edge. Cleveland has won five straight and nine of their last ten, and won 7-0 the last time they faced Jack Flaherty. While Flaherty looked sharp in his most recent outing, his overall form remains shaky, allowing 25 hits and 13 earned runs across his last five starts. On the other side, Gavin Williams has been reliable with a 10-5 record and 3.16 ERA, most recently holding the Tigers to just one hit over six innings. With Detroit stumbling at 4-6 over their last 10, the Guardians enter with both confidence and favorable recent matchups. At plus money, their current form and starting pitcher advantage make them a strong value pick on today’s slate.

Risk Factors

  • Both pitchers have a solid K rate and the Tigers have the better offense overall outscoring the Guardians by 0.95 R/G this season

🎯 Seattle Mariners Moneyline

Best Price: +100 on Caesars

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: Won

  • Last 3-Game Average: 3-0

  • Last 5-Game Average: 5-0

  • Season Average: 83-68

  • Confidence Score: 93

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 won

  • 5 out of last 5 won

  • 10 out of last 10 won

Key Analysis

The Seattle Mariners Moneyline at +100 on Caesars stands out as a strong even-money play backed by both form and matchup context. Seattle has been red hot, winning 10 straight games and going a perfect 5-0 over their last five. They dominated Kansas City last night with 12 runs on 14 hits, and they’ve outscored the Royals by nearly a run per game this season. Bryce Miller hasn’t been sharp overall with a 5.59 ERA, but the bigger storyline is Cole Ragans making his first start since early June. Rust and limited pitch count are real concerns, and the Royals’ offense hasn’t been able to cover for shaky pitching, dropping 7 of their last 10. With the Mariners surging and KC stumbling, this sets up as a high-confidence spot where Seattle’s momentum and offensive depth outweigh the pitching volatility, making the plus-value moneyline well worth consideration.

Risk Factors

  • 2 High ERA pitchers facing off

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🎯 Randy Arozarena OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: -118 on BetMGM

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 2 H/R/RBIs

  • Last 3-Game Average: 1.33 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Last 5-Game Average: 1.4 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Season Average: 2.027 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Confidence Score: 90

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 3 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Randy Arozarena’s OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs at -118 on BetMGM looks like a solid angle, particularly with the pitching matchup. He’s cleared this line in 8 of his last 10 games, and while his recent 3- and 5-game averages (1.33 and 1.4) sit just below the number, his season average of 2.03 H/R/RBIs suggests this is more than attainable. Arozarena has a .312 OBP against left-handed pitching and will face Cole Ragans, who hasn’t pitched since early June. Before his stint on the IL, Ragans allowed 13 runs on 17 hits across his last 3 starts, showing clear vulnerability. With Seattle’s lineup swinging hot and Arozarena consistently contributing in multiple scoring categories, the 90 confidence score aligns well with this being a favorable spot.

Risk Factors

  • Will likely need help from others in the lineup to cash

🎯 Chase Meidroth OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: -106 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 4 H/R/RBIs

  • Last 3-Game Average: 2.67 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Last 5-Game Average: 2.2 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Season Average: 1.643 H/R/RBIs per game

  • Confidence Score: 91

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 3 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Chase Meidroth’s OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs at -106 on DraftKings lines up well as a value play given his recent consistency and matchup. He’s gone over in 8 of his last 10 games, including a 4 H/R/RBI performance in his most recent outing, and is averaging 2.67 and 2.2 over his last 3 and 5 games, both comfortably above his season average of 1.64. Meidroth has shown good plate discipline and on-base ability with a .342 OBP versus right-handers, which bodes well against Tyler Wells. While Wells has only made two starts this season, he’s allowed 3 runs on 6 hits, showing he’s still settling in. With Meidroth in form, posting strong recent numbers, and holding the platoon advantage, the 91 confidence score is well-supported for this over.

Risk Factors

  • Wells gave up just a HR in his last 6.2 IP outing

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

  1. 🔥 Cleveland Guardians Moneyline (+132 BetRivers)

    • Most consistent trend: 9/10 in L10

    • While Flaherty looked sharp in his most recent outing, his overall form remains shaky, allowing 25 hits and 13 earned runs across his last five starts. On the other side, Gavin Williams has been reliable with a 10-5 record and 3.16 ERA

    • Cleveland has won five straight and nine of their last ten, and won 7-0 the last time they faced Jack Flaherty.

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Randy Arozarena OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-118 BetMGM)

  • Hot streak: 8/10 in L10

  • Averaging 2.027 H/R/RBIs per game this season

  • Arozarena has a .312 OBP against left-handed pitching and will face Cole Ragans, who hasn’t pitched since early June. Before his stint on the IL, Ragans allowed 13 runs on 17 hits across his last 3 starts

2. ⚡ Chase Meidroth OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-106 DraftKings)

  • 8/L10 games going OVER

  • Averaging 2.2 H/R/RBIs per game over his last 5

  • Meidroth has shown good plate discipline and on-base ability with a .342 OBP versus right-handers, which bodes well against Tyler Wells

Watch List

1. ⚠️ Seattle Mariners Moneyline (+100 Caesars)

  • Strong trend but 2 high ERA pitchers are facing off

  • They dominated Kansas City last night with 12 runs on 14 hits, and they’ve outscored the Royals by nearly a run per game this season

  • Cole Ragans making his first start since early June. Rust and limited pitch count are real concerns, and the Royals’ offense hasn’t been able to cover for shaky pitching, dropping 7 of their last 10

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team