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- Unders Under the Lights (4/18)
Unders Under the Lights (4/18)
Sharp Analysis. Simple Execution. Daily Value.
Samuel Garmoe
April 18, 2025
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Table of Contents
Happy Friday to our loyal WagerLens subscribers! We are coming to you live with a full slate of 15 MLB games on the docket. The wins are starting to come in for our MLB analysis, and yesterday was no exception with a 2-1 day. Stay tuned for today’s top picks, and the first beer at the park will taste like winning.
📊 WagerLens Performance Review
Yesterday (4/18): 2-1 (67%)
MLB: 21-17 (55%)
Apr ‘25: 32-24 (57%)
All-Time: 142-116 (55%)
💎 Today’s Featured Props
🎯 Eugenio Suarez UNDER 0.5 RBI
Best Price: -130 on ESPN Bet
Recent Performance
Last Game: 0 RBI
Last 3-Game Average: 0 RBI
Last 5-Game Average: 0 RBI
Season Average: 0.6 RBI/game
How Has This Prop Performed?
3 out of last 3 under
5 out of last 5 under
10 out of last 10 under
Key Analysis
In case the trend card looks deceptive, Suarez has zero RBIs in his past ten games. Tonight does not look like a reprieve, as the DBacks face a strong starter in the Cubs’ Rea. Today is also the ever infuriating day game at Wrigley, since they refuse to play games at night like civilized humans. The short turnaround does no favors for the struggling Suarez, and we will capitalize.
Risk Factors
Small Wrigley dimensions favor hitters
🎯 Otto Lopez UNDER 0.5 Singles
Best Price: -115 on DraftKings
Recent Performance
Last Game: 1 single
Last 3-Game Average: 0.3 single/game
Last 5-Game Average: 0.2 single/game
Season Average: 0.5 single/game
How Has This Prop Performed?
2 out of last 3 under
4 out of last 5 under
9 out of last 10 under
Key Analysis
Lopez has an extremely tough matchup tonight against Philly’s Zach Wheeler on the road. Facing Wheeler is always a challenge, and we are looking to capitalize on a matchup setting up to favor the pitcher. We expect Wheeler to dominate an inferior Marlins lineup.
Risk Factors
Batters may squeak a single even when getting beaten by a superior pitcher
🎯 Michael Massey UNDER 1.5 H + R + RBI
Best Price: -135 on DraftKings
Recent Performance
Last Game: 3 H R RBI
Last 3-Game Average: 1 H R RBI / game
Last 5-Game Average: 0.6 H R RBI / game
Season Average: 1.2 H R RBI / game
How Has This Prop Performed?
2 out of last 3 under
4 out of last 5 under
9 out of last 10 under
Key Analysis
Massey hit the over on this prop yesterday, but one game does not negate a trend and he did not provide much value to the actual game. Today the Royals go on the road against to Detroit, facing their star pitching prospect who is looking to establish himself in their rotation. KC has never faced Jobe before and we are looking to capitalize on their lack of experience by taking unders on the KC offense.
Risk Factors
Rookies are often easily to rattle if they get into trouble
MLB Home Run Hitters Edge
MLB hitters with higher probability to hit a home run based on season stats, matchups with starting pitchers and other key stats (odds from DraftKings)
Bryce Harper +400
Ryan McMahon +800
Adley Rutschman +750
Juan Soto +300
Freddie Freeman +400
Wilmer Flores +500
Today's Featured Props Recap
We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:
Trending Unders
1. 📉 Eugenio Suarez UNDER 0.5 RBI (-130 on ESPNBet)
10/L10 games staying UNDER
Tough matchup against the Cubs tonight
Friday day game gives less rest & film time
2. ⬇️ Otto Lopez UNDER 0.5 singles (-115 on DraftKings)
9/L10 games staying UNDER
Facing Zach Wheeler in Philadelphia
3. 👎 Michael Massey Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
9/L10 games staying UNDER
Hitting for very little power, making line more challenging
All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.
As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!
— The WagerLens Team