Welcome to the second edition of WagerLens Weekly! We're thrilled to bring you insights and analysis as we gear up for an epic NFL Championship Weekend. In this issue, we'll recap some key takeaways from the Divisional Round and look ahead to the Conference Championships. Plus, our Betting Classroom section dives deep into converting odds to implied probabilities – a crucial skill for any serious bettor. Let's huddle up and get ready for kickoff!

👋 QUICK TAKE

Washington Commanders +6 (-108)

It's Championship Weekend in the NFL, and there's an unexpected contender – the Washington Commanders. Last week, we called it: the Commanders would cover the spread at +9.5, and they delivered in a big way. Despite allowing Gibbs to rack up 105 yards and 2 TDs, Washington's defense stepped up and secured a 14-point win over the Lions.

Looking ahead to this weekend, our model shows the Eagles as 3-point favorites in their matchup. With Jalen Hurts nursing a leg injury from the divisional round, the focus will be on neutralizing Saquon Barkley. The stakes are high – who will emerge victorious on the road to the Super Bowl? Stay tuned!

🎯 THIS WEEK'S PRIME PLAYS

Our highest-confidence opportunities, backed by clear data.

Main Play: Travis Kelce Over 70.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Over the past two weeks, one thing's been clear – tight ends are eating. Travis Kelce, in particular, has been on fire, clearing his receiving yards line in both of his last two games. Known for rising to the occasion when the spotlight shines brightest, Kelce has a proven track record in the postseason.

In last year's AFC Championship against the Ravens, Kelce posted 116 yards, 11 receptions, and a touchdown. In fact, he's cleared his receiving line in the last four AFC Championship games, with a minimum of 7 receptions in each. As we head into another high-stakes matchup, expect Kelce to once again be a focal point for the Chiefs' offense.

Supporting Play: Travis Kelce Over Anytime TD (+125)

In last week's win over the Ravens, the Bills defense struggled to contain the tight end duo of Likely and Andrews, who combined for 9 receptions, 134 yards, and a touchdown. With that in mind, expect Travis Kelce to be a key target for the Chiefs once again. Kelce has been a consistent postseason performer, scoring at least one touchdown in each of the last four AFC Championship games.

Given the Bills' recent issues with tight ends, it's safe to say Kelce will likely find the end zone once more as Kansas City looks to punch their ticket to the Super Bowl. Keep an eye on Kelce – he's primed for another big performance this weekend.

📊 TREND SPOTLIGHT

Mobile QBs Leaving Defenses in the Dust

The age of the pocket passer is fading fast, and the 2025 NFL Championship matchups are the latest proof. Aside from Patrick Mahomes, who remains a bit of an outlier, the other three quarterbacks in the championship round—Josh Allen, rookie Jayden Daniels, and Jalen Hurts—are all major threats with their legs. Collectively, they average 42 rushing yards per game.

In the divisional round, Hurts rushed for 70 yards before suffering a knee injury, Allen added 20 yards on the ground, and Daniels chipped in with 51 yards. As we head into the postseason, expect these mobile quarterbacks—including Mahomes—to continue using their legs to create plays and put their teams in the best position to punch their ticket to the Super Bowl.

The game has clearly shifted, and defenses must now account for more than just a strong arm—they need to prepare for dynamic playmakers who can hurt them with both their arms and legs. Handicap accordingly!

📚 BETTING CLASSROOM

Converting Odds to Implied Probability

Reading odds becomes even more powerful when you understand how to convert them to their implied probabilities. This allows you to assess how likely the sportsbook thinks an outcome is and compare it to your own assessment. If you like a bet more than the bookie does, that's where you find value!

Converting American odds to implied probability involves some math, so buckle up. Let's take -110 as an example:

1. Start with the absolute value of the odds: 110

2. If the odds are negative, add 100. If positive, divide 100 by the odds + 100. For -110: 110 + 100 = 210

3. Divide the result by 100: 210 / 100 = 2.1

4. Divide 1 by that result: 1 / 2.1 = 0.4761904761904762

5. Multiply by 100 to get the implied probability percentage: 47.62%

So when you see a -110 line, the bookie is saying they think that outcome has about a 47.6% chance of happening.

Want to dive deeper into implied probability and become a conversion pro? Check out our full guide: Understanding Odds

💡 QUICK TIPS

• The obvious choice is not always the right choice, trust the data not the hype

• When placing parlays, limit the number of legs you include. For Same Game parlays, account for opportunity and length of a single game.

• Live betting is a fun way to stay engaged with the game and get some juicy odds, but do so carefully and be smart

We're all set for an incredible Championship Weekend. As always, bet responsibly, stay disciplined, and most of all, enjoy the games! You've got this 💪

Don't forget to give us a follow on Twitter @WagerLens for even more betting insights, analysis, and real-time updates throughout the playoffs. From injury reports to line movements, we've got you covered. Join the conversation and let us know your thoughts on this weekend's championship matchups. Let's crack this betting code together! 🔓

Let's dial in and cash out. Go get that money! 💰

— The WagerLens Team