Welcome to June: The MLB Props with Momentum, Matchup Edges, and Payout Potential

Schwarber’s Hot, Seager’s Cold, Santana’s the Value

AuthorAuthor

Sage Davis & Brian McAbee
June 01, 2025

We’re heating up! After a solid 2-1 day yesterday, we’re back in the green and starting to swing momentum in our favor. The board rewarded our reads, and we’re aiming to keep that energy rolling. Today’s a full slate of MLB day games — and there’s nothing better than locking in winners before dinner. With early starts across the league, we’ve got action from the first pitch to the final out. Let’s take advantage of the daylight and keep building that bankroll!

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Table of Contents

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (05/31): 2-1 (67%; +1.13 Units)

MLB: 87-83 (51%; +9.15 Units)

May ‘25: 48-42 (53%; -1.35 Units)

All-Time: 212-184 (54%; +44.34 Units)

🎯 Carlos Santana OVER 1.5 Total Bases

Best Price: +170 on FanDuel

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 5 TB

  • Last 3-Game Average: 3 TB/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 2.6 TB/G

  • Season Average: 1.396 TB/G

  • Confidence Score: 92

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 2 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Carlos Santana's total bases prop set at Over 1.5 is priced attractively at +170 on FanDuel, offering value based on his recent trends. He's averaging 3.0 TB per game over his last 3 games and 2.6 over his last 5, both well above his season average of 1.396. He's also hit the over in 4 of his last 5 and 8 of his last 10 games, showing strong recent form. Additionally, Santana has had some success against tonight’s starter, Kochanowicz, going 2-for-4 with a HR, and he performs solidly against right-handed pitching with a .261 BA and .798 OPS. Kochanowicz has been hittable lately, allowing 40 hits over his last 7 starts, which boosts confidence in this matchup. While the +170 odds suggest a lower implied probability, Santana's form and matchup provide a strong case for the over.

Risk Factors

  • Multi-hit game or XBH to cash

🎯 Kyle Schwarber OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Best Price: -120 on Caesars

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 5 H/R/RBIs

  • Last 3-Game Average: 3.33 H/R/RBIs per Game

  • Last 5-Game Average: 2.6 H/R/RBIs per Game

  • Season Average: 2.466 H/R/RBIs per Game

  • Confidence Score: 91

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 over

  • 4 out of last 5 over

  • 8 out of last 10 over

Key Analysis

Kyle Schwarber's Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs prop is well-priced at -120 on Caesars, offering solid value given his recent production. Schwarber has cleared this line in three straight games, four of his last five, and eight of his last ten, averaging 3.33 H/R/RBIs over his last 3 games, compared to his season average of 2.466. He’s also had success against José Quintana, going 7-for-21 (.333 OBP) with a HR and 4 RBIs, and he's crushing left-handed pitching this year with a .299 BA and 1.178 OPS. Quintana has struggled with contact, giving up 31 hits and 10 runs over his last 34 innings. All signs point to Schwarber being in a strong position to clear this number again, especially given his power and on-base ability against lefties.

Risk Factors

  • Cashing may depend on others in the lineup to perform

🎯 Corey Seager UNDER 1.5 Total Bases

Best Price: -115 on ESPN Bet

Recent Performance

  • Last Game: 1 TB

  • Last 3-Game Average: .67 TB/G

  • Last 5-Game Average: 2.6 TB/G

  • Season Average: 1.862 TB/G

  • Confidence Score: 81

How Has This Prop Performed?

  • 3 out of last 3 under

  • 4 out of last 5 under

  • 7 out of last 10 under

Key Analysis

Corey Seager’s Under 1.5 Total Bases is available at -115 on ESPN Bet, and recent trends support a lean toward the under. While his season average sits at 1.862 TB/G, his last 3-game average has dropped to just 0.67 TB/G, and the 5-game average of 2.6 is skewed by a single 10-total-base outburst. Seager has gone under this line in three straight, four of his last five, and seven of his last ten games, suggesting a cooling stretch. He’s also 0-for-3 lifetime vs Erick Fedde, who, despite allowing 42 hits over his last 41.1 IP, has generally kept hitters from doing major damage. With Seager showing inconsistent production and limited history against Fedde, the under offers value at near-even odds.

Risk Factors

  • Seager high ceiling for TB/G

MLB Home Run Hitters Edge

MLB hitters with higher probability to hit a home run based on season stats, matchups with starting pitchers and other key stats (odds from DraftKings)

  • Teoscar Hernandez +340

  • Andrew Benintendi +600

  • Kyle Schwarber +260

  • Yainer Diaz +500

  • TJ Friedl +900

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

  1. 🔥 Carlos Santana OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+170 FanDuel)

    • Most consistent trend: 8/10 in L10

    • Averaging 2.6 TB/G over last 5

    • Santana has had some success against tonight’s starter, Kochanowicz, going 2-for-4 with a HR, and he performs solidly against right-handed pitching with a .261 BA and .798 OPS. Kochanowicz has been hittable lately, allowing 40 hits over his last 7 starts

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Kyle Schwarber OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-120 Caesars)

  • Hot streak: 8/10 in L10

  • Averaging 2.6 H/R/RBIs per game in L5

  • Successful against José Quintana, going 7-for-21 (.333 OBP) with a HR and 4 RBIs, and he's crushing left-handed pitching this year with a .299 BA and 1.178 OPS

Trending Unders

1. 📉 Corey Seager UNDER 1.5 Total Bases (-115 ESPN Bet)

  • 4/L5 games staying UNDER

  • Averaging just .67 TB/G over last 3 games

  • 0-for-3 lifetime vs Erick Fedde, who, despite allowing 42 hits over his last 41.1 IP, has generally kept hitters from doing major damage

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team