Don’t Sleep on Scoring Surges: Cubs, Angels, and a Market That’s Lagging

MLB scoring is heating up, but not everywhere. Here's how to spot value before the market catches on.

Author

Brian McAbee
May 22, 2025

We’re not here to act like we hit every pick. Our free plays went 0-3 yesterday. But long-term profit isn’t about being perfect, it’s about consistently staying above 50%, and we’re holding that profitable edge when you zoom out. Today, we’re digging into how surging offenses—like the Cubs and Angels—can expose overs the books haven’t fully adjusted to.

📊 WagerLens Performance Review

Yesterday (05/21): 0-3 (0%; -3 Units)

MLB: 79-69 (53%; +14.81 Units)

May ‘25: 40-28 (59%; +4.5 Units)

All-Time: 204-170 (54.5%; +50 Units)

⚾ Assessing Recent MLB Team Scoring Trends

Just a week ago , we noted a dip in early-season scoring, with unders showing value. However, recent games have seen specific teams having a surge in offense, with teams like the Dodgers and Cubs averaging over 7 runs per game in the past week. This shift suggests that some overs, particularly in full-game and first-five inning totals, may now offer more value to bettors.

As of May 22, 2025, MLB's league-wide batting average sits at .243, a slight uptick from the .240 mark at this point last season. Home runs per game have also increased to 1.27, compared to 1.02 in 2024.

At WagerLens, we've observed that sportsbooks have been slow to adjust totals for specifically teams accordingly, presenting opportunities for sharp bettors to capitalize. Let’s talk about how we can make this work in our favor.

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📊 Matchup Spotlight: High-Scoring Opportunities

Match-up

Angle

Why It Pops

Phillies @ Rockies

Over 11.5 Total Runs

Coors Field remains MLB's most hitter-friendly park. The Phillies' offense is surging, and Rockies' starter Germán Márquez has an 8.78 ERA, suggesting a high-scoring affair.

Angels @ Athletics

Over 9.5 Total Runs

The Angels are coming off a 10-run game, and the A's pitching has been inconsistent. Expect the offenses to capitalize.

Orioles @ Red Sox

Over 9.5 Total Runs

The Orioles' pitching staff is struggling, with starters holding ERAs over 5.00. Fenway Park's hitter-friendly dimensions could lead to a high-scoring game.

Risk 1-2 % of bankroll per play. Spring variance still hits like a 2-1 slider in the dirt.

🔍 Factors Fueling the Surge

  • Starting Pitcher Innings: In 2024, only four pitchers exceeded 200 innings, down from 34 in 2014, reflecting a strategic shift towards bullpen reliance.

  • Bullpen Performance: With starters going fewer innings, bullpen strength becomes crucial. Focus on teams with reliable relievers and low blown save percentages.

  • Weather and Field Conditions: Temperature, wind, and humidity can significantly impact run production. Always check forecasts before placing totals bets.

👉 Dive Deeper Into the Stats

We've kept this email bite-sized, but if you're ready to level up your betting game, our latest blog posts have you covered:

  • Baseball Key Statistics: Learn which stats truly matter when handicapping baseball games. From pitcher/batter matchups to bullpen performance, this guide breaks down the essential metrics.

  • Baseball Betting Guide: A comprehensive resource covering everything from understanding odds to managing your bankroll effectively. Perfect for both beginners and seasoned bettors looking to refine their approach.

Explore these guides to gain deeper insights and enhance your betting strategy.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team