If you tailed yesterday’s Vikings–Steelers Dublin newsletter, you should already have a little breakfast bankroll. Let’s stack it with today’s best player props AND a 4-leg moneyline parlay we’re confident will hit.

Table of Contents

• 💎 Today’s Featured Props

• NFL Moneyline Parlay

• Today's Featured Props Recap

💎 Today’s Featured Props

🎯 Kyle Pitts OVER 38.5 Receiving Yards

Best Price: -114 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 39 Yds

• Last 3-Game Average: 45 Yds/g

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 2 out of last 3 over

Key Analysis

Kyle Pitts’ receiving line is set at 38.5 yards, and this looks like a spot where the over makes sense. He cleared this number with 39 yards last week and is averaging 45 yards per game across his last three, showing steady involvement in Atlanta’s offense. Washington has been especially vulnerable to tight ends, allowing 38 yards to Brock Bowers last week and a staggering 124 to Tucker Kraft the week before. With the Commanders struggling to contain the position and Pitts trending upward, he has multiple paths to go over this modest line.

Risk Factors

• Pitts receives less volume

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Price shifts are where the market shows its hand. Knowing how to read them can be the edge between cashing and chasing.

🎯 Dalton Kincaid OVER 34.5 Receiving Yards

Best Price: -109 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 66 Yds

• Last 3-Game Average: 50.3 Yds/G

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 over

Key Analysis

Dalton Kincaid’s line sits at 34.5 receiving yards, and he’s been a reliable option in Buffalo’s passing attack lately. He posted 66 yards last week and is averaging just over 50 per game across his last three, clearing this number in all of them. The volume has been steady with six targets in back-to-back games, and his 11.6 yards per catch gives him efficiency to go along with usage. The Saints have shown vulnerability against tight ends, allowing six receptions and over 60 yards to the Cardinals’ TE group back in Week 1. With Kincaid’s role growing and the matchup favorable, he looks well-positioned to keep the streak going and top this modest number.

Risk Factors

• Bills focus on run game

• Blow out game pulls starters early

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🎯 Keenan Allen Over 50.5 Receiving yards

Best Price: -105 on Pinnacle

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 65 Yds

• Last 3-Game Average: 64.7 yds/G

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 over

Key Analysis

Keenan Allen’s receiving line is set at 50.5 yards, and his consistency makes the over appealing. He’s cleared this number in three straight games, averaging nearly 65 yards per contest during that stretch and posting 65 last week. The volume has been strong with 9.3 targets per game, and his 10.2 yards per catch provides multiple paths to production. The matchup also favors him, as the Giants rank fifth-worst in passing yards allowed per game, leaving Allen in a strong position to extend his streak and surpass this modest line.

Risk Factors

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🎯 Baker Mayfield OVER 17.5 Rushing Yards

Best Price: -114 on FanDuel

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 44 Yds

• Last 3-Game Average: 38.7 Yds/G

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 over

Key Analysis

Baker Mayfield’s rushing line of 17.5 yards looks beatable given his recent form. He’s gone over this number in three straight games, averaging nearly 39 rushing yards per contest and posting 44 last week. What stands out is his explosiveness, he’s had at least one run of 16+ yards in every game this season, meaning he can get most of this line in a single scramble. With around four attempts per game and an impressive 9.7 yards per carry, the volume and efficiency both point toward him clearing this modest total once again.

Risk Factors

• Impressive Eagles defensive line

🎯 Daniel Jones OVER 216.5 Passing Yards

Best Price: -112 on DraftKings

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 228 Yds

• Last 3-Game Average: 272 Yds/G

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 over

Key Analysis

Daniel Jones’ passing line is set at 216.5 yards, and the over looks well within reach based on both form and matchup. He’s cleared this number in three straight, averaging 272 yards per game over that stretch and throwing for 228 last week. The Rams just gave up Jalen Hurts’ highest passing total of the season, showing they can be vulnerable through the air despite a solid run defense. That defensive balance could force the Colts into maintaining a heavier passing script, and even their top weapon out of the backfield, Jonathan Taylor, has been producing like a receiver with 11.6 yards per catch and over 30 receiving yards per game. With Jones spreading the ball around and the Rams limiting ground success, this line sets up as a favorable opportunity for another over.

Risk Factors

• Not enough volume to produce such high yardage

🎯 JuJu Smith-Schuster OVER 21.5 Receiving Yards

Best Price: -105 on Caesars

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 55 Yds

• Last 3-Game Average: 38.3 Yds/G

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 2 out of last 3 over

Key Analysis

JuJu Smith-Schuster’s receiving line of 21.5 yards feels low given his role in Kansas City’s offense. He posted 55 yards last game and is averaging just over 38 across his last three, going over this number in two of those outings. While the Chiefs’ offense has been up and down, JuJu has become something of a safety valve for Mahomes, seeing about four targets per game and turning them into 11.5 yards per catch. The matchup also works in his favor, as Baltimore is allowing the second-most passing yards per game this season. With his efficiency and consistent involvement, JuJu doesn’t need heavy volume to clear this line.

Risk Factors

• Low floor with just 5 yds in week 2

🎯 Javonte Williams OVER 49.5 Rushing Yards

Best Price: -105 on ESPN Bet

Recent Performance

• Last Game: 76 Yds

• Last 3-Game Average: 75.7 Yds/G

How Has This Prop Performed?

• 3 out of last 3 over

Key Analysis

Javonte Williams’ rushing line is set at 49.5 yards, and he’s been running well enough to keep the over in play. He’s cleared this mark in three straight games, averaging nearly 76 rushing yards over that stretch and posting 76 just last week. The workload has been consistent at about 14 carries per game, and his 5.3 yards per attempt shows strong efficiency. While the Packers’ run defense looked solid early in the season, they just allowed Quinshon Judkins to rack up 94 yards against them, which suggests Williams should find similar opportunities. With steady volume and efficiency, this line feels a touch low compared to his recent form.

Risk Factors

• The presence of Micah Parsons in his return to Dallas

NFL Moneyline Parlay

• Los Angeles Chargers ML

• Indianapolis Colts ML

• San Francisco 49ers ML

• New England Patriots ML

Today's Featured Props Recap

We've identified several promising player props for tonight's slate, each showing strong statistical trends and reasonable market prices:

Best Value Plays

1. 🔥 Baker Mayfield OVER 17.5 Rushing Yards (-114, FanDuel)

   • Most consistent trend: 3/3 in L3

   • Key stat: 9.7 YPC (with a 16+ yard run in every game)

   • One scramble can cash most of this line; rushing usage is real, not noise.

2. 🔥 Dalton Kincaid OVER 34.5 Receiving Yards (-109, DraftKings)

   • Most consistent trend: 3/3 in L3

   • Key stat: 6 targets in back-to-back games (11.6 Y/R)

   • Role is sticky and Saints have shown TE leakage; modest number for a primary chain-mover.

3. 🔥 Keenan Allen OVER 50.5 Receiving Yards (-105, Pinnacle)

   • Most consistent trend: 3/3 in L3

   • Key stat: 9.3 targets/g, 10.2 Y/R

   • Volume + a soft Giants pass defense (bottom-5 yards allowed) make 50.5 too low.

Trending Overs

1. 📈 Daniel Jones OVER 216.5 Passing Yards (-112, DraftKings)

   • Most consistent trend: 3/3 in L3

   • Averaging 272 in L3

   • Rams just allowed Hurts’ season-high through the air; likely pass-lean script keeps attempts up.

2. ⚡ Javonte Williams OVER 49.5 Rushing Yards (-105, ESPN Bet)

   • Most consistent trend: 3/3 in L3

   • Averaging 75.7 in L3

   • ~14 carries/g with 5.3 YPC; Packers just yielded 94 to Quinshon Judkins—lane integrity isn’t tight.

Watch List

1. ⚠️ Kyle Pitts OVER 38.5 Receiving Yards (-114, DraftKings)

   • Strong trend but volume can swing

   • 2/3 overs, 39 last game; Commanders recently allowed 124 to Tucker Kraft and 38 to Brock Bowers

   • Early target share and middle-of-field usage in first two drives.

2. ⚠️ JuJu Smith-Schuster OVER 21.5 Receiving Yards (-105, Caesars)

   • Strong trend but low floor (5 yards in Week 2)

   • 2/3 overs, 55 last game; ~4 targets/g at 11.5 Y/R

   • Route rate/snap % in opening quarter and whether KC leans heavier to secondary reads.

All data points are sourced through WagerLens, providing near real-time odds comparison and historical performance metrics across major sportsbooks.

As always, bet responsibly and let’s make some money!

— The WagerLens Team